Research · Monthly reveal

Fearless trade experiments: the monthly reveal

Everyone who signs up in a month forms that month’s group, for good. Each participant places paper money either by a blind draw (a random pick from the month’s list) or by a self-pick (chosen by hand). Each is valued at settled prices, a day late, and set beside the same rupees on the same days in Nifty 50 (a basket that tracks the largest listed companies). Shown here: the median (the middle participant) and the middle half (the range the middle 50% of participants fall in). No individual result is shown, nothing is ranked, and any figure resting on fewer than 5 participants is withheld.

Paper money only: prices are a day late, nothing is bought or sold for real, no reward is tied to returns, and it does not train anyone for real trading.

Joined September 2026

5 participants

Self-picked

—

fewer than 5 participants

return on positions chosen by hand, still held

Blind draw

−1.4%

middle half −2.8% to −1.0% · 5 participants

return on positions drawn at random, still held

Nifty 50

—

fewer than 5 participants

the same rupees, on the same days, in the index

Self-picked minus own blind drawparticipants holding both; percentage points · fewer than 5 participants—

Self-picks ahead of own drawshare of participants holding both · fewer than 5 participants—

Paper money placedshare of the month’s ₹1 lakh put to work · middle half +2.0% to +100.0% · 5 participants+5.0%

Sold mostly at a lossshare of participants who sold anything · fewer than 5 participants—

Priced 28 Sep 2026. Positions already sold are left out, because the index level on the day of sale is not recorded. A few months of results say little: two coin flips are not a pattern, and the gap between picks and draws means something only after many months.

Read this first

Paper money is not real money, and results with it are not results with savings. Nothing here is a suggestion to buy, sell, switch or hold anything, and there is no prize or reward for any result. What each measure tests, and why, is on the research register.